SACRAMENTO — The choices seem endless as Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger ponders his pick to fill the now-vacant lieutenant governor's job. But the path that many expect the governor to take invariably leads back to one person: Sen. Abel Maldonado, R-Santa Maria.

Several sources close to the administration said privately that Maldonado is the likely choice for two reasons: He has bailed out the governor with a number of critical votes — on budgets and taxes, for which the governor may feel some debt — and would sail through the Democratic-controlled Legislature for confirmation.

"Schwarzenegger has settled on Maldonado. I'm hearing it's him," one person close to the administration said, asking not to be identified.

Said another: "If I was betting on it, I'd bet on him," referring to Maldonado.

Other scenarios have Schwarzenegger choosing:

  • Someone like former Assembly Speaker Bob Hertzberg, a Los Angeles Democrat and cigar-smoking friend of the governor's, to sit as a caretaker until the 2010 election.

  • Tom Campbell, a former GOP congressman from Silicon Valley, who could boost his gubernatorial run from that office, whose powers include casting tiebreaker votes in the Senate, chairing the three-member State Lands Commission, and filling in as acting governor when the governor leaves the state.

    Democrats would have to tread carefully around the objections

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    of two candidates already in the running for lieutenant governor — Sen. Dean Florez, D-Fresno, and Los Angeles City Councilmember Janice Hahn.

    But Maldonado represents an opportunity that would be hard to pass up: His departure from the Senate would open up a seat that Democrats are confident they could capture in a special election and hold onto in 2012.

    In 2008, President Barack Obama won 59 percent of the vote in the 15th District, which includes parts of Santa Clara, Santa Cruz, Monterey, San Luis Obispo, and Santa Barbara counties.

    Capturing that seat would get Democrats within one vote of a two-thirds majority they need to approve budgets and taxes without Republican votes.

    "Democrats moan and groan about the two-thirds rule, so why don't they go out and win an election?" said Tony Quinn, a former GOP staffer and co-editor of the California Target Book. "This would give them a chance to do that — if they're smart enough to take it."

    A choice could be made soon, said Aaron McLear, a spokesman for Schwarzenegger.

    "The governor has not been focusing on the lieutenant governor vacancy because he's been busy with water reform, but he will announce his appointment very soon," McLear said. "I'd guess in the next few days. Sooner rather than later."

    One reason Schwarzenegger would move quickly on his choice would be to get the clock started on the nominee's confirmation by the Legislature. Once the appointment is made, the Legislature has 90 days to confirm the appointee. With the March 12 deadline for filing for candidacies looming, the governor would have to make the appointment by Dec. 12 to ensure that a nominee could run for the office in 2010.

    Complicating the matter, though, is whether Democrats would want to confirm Maldonado early enough that Assembly Speaker Sam Blakeslee, R-San Luis Obispo, could make a move to file for Maldonado's Senate seat. Pushing back the confirmation would force Blakeslee to choose between heading the Assembly budget negotiations and stepping aside for his own ambitions, observers said.

    Maldonado has shown an interest in statewide offices before: He ran in 2006 for state controller, losing in the Republican primary to conservative Tony Strickland. At the time, Maldonado lashed out at Schwarzenegger for failing to come to his aid to repay in kind the loyalty the senator had shown on a tough budget vote he took.

    But the two appeared to get past their differences earlier this year when Maldonado was one of three GOP senators to vote for a tax increase in February.

    As a moderate who voted for taxes, Maldonado would have a tough time getting through the primaries — dominated by conservative activists — for any statewide run. But it would be more difficult to unseat him in a primary once he held the office.

    With conservative Sens. Jeff Denham, R-Modesto, and Sam Aanestad, R-Grass Valley, running for lieutenant governor, Schwarzenegger may face some heat from the right wing of his party for overlooking their preferences.

    "He will not win in a Republican primary because of his votes for taxes," said Kevin Spillane, a Republican strategist running Denham's campaign.

    On the other hand, conservative GOP blogger Jon Fleischman said, Maldonado's GOP caucus mates would be "so anxious to get him out, they'd vote to confirm him just so they would no longer have him in their caucus."

    Reach Steven Harmon at 916-441-2101.