Low prices are finally attracting buyers, with rising sales in cities decimated by foreclosures such as Antioch, Brentwood, Daly City and Fairfield, a real estate information service reported Tuesday. But while other areas still experienced losses, experts wonder if is this the sign of a rebounding the market or simply a dead cat bounce.
In the Bay Area, Contra Costa and San Francisco counties posted positive sales, the first positive number in Contra Costa since 2004. A total of 6,310 new and resale houses and condos sold in the nine-county Bay Area in April, up 28.8 percent from 4,898 in March, and down 15.3 percent from 7,447 last year, DataQuick Information Systems reported.
The month-to-month jump was the strongest for any March/April in DataQuick's statistics, which date to 1988. Starting in September and going through March, each calendar month was the slowest on record. Last month was the slowest April since 1995, when 5,636 homes were sold.
"It's been the strongest month since last August," said DataQuick analyst Andrew LePage. "I don't think this is a sign of bottom because one month doesn't make a trend. "... Anyone with any inkling of history has to see a multi-month trend, of at least three to six months."
LePage said that the most significant finding was that sales rose where the prices have fallen the most. This includes San Joaquin County, where sales in April rose 50.9 percent with a median price of $245,000.
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Foreclosure property resales accounted for 25.7 percent of last month's Bay Area market. While foreclosures were 5.9 of San Francisco County's and 8.9 percent of Marin's County's resale market last month, they made up 44.7 in Contra Costa County and 54.2 percent in Solano County.
Jill Cruey, an agent with Keller Williams Realty in Walnut Creek, said that many of her clients want to buy in Pittsburg, Antioch and Brentwood. Lower prices are making people decide to buy.
"At $300,000, a lot of people qualify for loans that didn't qualify before," she said. "I'm seeing a lot of young people and investors going after foreclosures priced aggressively, and if it's priced aggressively it receives multiple offers."
Cruey said that she does not "farm an area", but she found that most of her business seems to be coming from East County, something she has discussed with other agents.
"As a Realtor, we've been working very hard to reach buyers on the fence," she said. "We have been trying very hard to get them to see that California is always going to be a good place to live and will survive."
According to the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Opportunity Index, the price drops have nearly doubled affordability in the Bay Area.
The typical monthly mortgage payment was $2,309 last month, down from $2,405 the previous month, and down from $3,074 a year ago. Financing with adjustable-rate mortgages is at a six-year low, DataQuick reported.
The state's ZIP codes with the highest amounts of sales year-over-year included Brentwood (94513) with 107 sales; Daly City (94104) with 10 sales; Antioch (94531) at 82 sales and Fairfield (94534) with 51 sales. With the exception of Daly City, with a median sales price of $530,000, all median prices were less than $400,000.
Economist Stephen Levy said that it falls into line with his recent economic projections.
"I think we have probably hit bottom in terms of volume of sales, but I don't think we've hit bottom in prices," Levy, director of the Palo Alto-based Center for the Continuing Study of the California Economy. "It's not surprising that with a volume of sales at this low level would bounce up, but I don't think any sustained changes will come."
Instead, Levy said that in hard-hit areas such as East Contra Costa County and the Central Valley, sales could not continue to lessen.
"Sales there have been cut in half," he said. "But I think this is good. "... We're making homes more affordable, and that's what we need for the economy."
In the East Bay, 32.4 percent of residents could afford to buy a home in the first part of 2008 as opposed to only 17.4 percent in late 2007. In San Joaquin County, it went from 16.9 percent of people to 35.5 percent, while those on the Peninsula who could afford a home rose from 7.9 percent to 12.7 percent. Solano County's affordability rose from 20.4 percent to 35.1 percent.
But the California Building Industry Association reported that less expensive prices are only temporary.
"It's just a reflection of the subprime mortgage issue, credit crisis and falling prices," said Michael Castillo, spokesman for the association. "A lot of people out there are bargain-hunting."
Barbara E. Hernandez covers real estate. Reach her at 925-952-5063 or bhernandez@bayareanewsgroup.com. Read her real estate blog, Property Lines, at www.ibabuzz.com/propertylines.




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