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Opinion: Eight conservatives predicting a Romney victory tomorrow
Ryan Teague Beckwith
mercurynews.com
Posted: 11/05/2012 05:35:43 AM PST
November 5, 2012 11:22 PM GMT
Updated: 11/05/2012 03:22:15 PM PST
[
View the story "8 people predicting a Romney win on Election Day" on Storify
]
8 people predicting a Romney win on Election Day
Storified by Digital First Media · Mon, Nov 05 2012 14:34:38
Although many professional prognosticators see President Obama as the favorite tomorrow, some notable conservatives are dissenting. Their maps show everything from a slim win by Mitt Romney with 275 Electoral College votes to a 325-vote landslide, with some maps putting Wisconsin, Minnesota, Pennsylvania and even Michigan in play.
One thing these seven maps agree on, however, is a Romney win in Ohio. (
Updated:
Ben Domenech's map, added below, does not include Romney winning Ohio.)
Related:
Ten 2012 Electoral College predictions have Obama ahead.
Dick Morris:
Romney 325, Obama 213
Denverpost
In an appearance on Fox News, conservative commentator
Dick Morris
predicted a massive Romney win with 325 Electoral College votes. To
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get there, Romney would have to win all of the swing states but Nevada and turn Minnesota, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania red.
Swing states for Romney:
Colorado, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Virginia, North Carolina, Florida
Swing states for Obama:
Nevada
George F. Will:
Romney 321, Obama 217
Denverpost
Conservative commentator
George F. Will
predicted a huge Romney win, with 321 Electoral College votes. His map is essentially the same as Morris' scenario above, but he would keep Wisconsin in Obama's column and give Nevada to Romney instead.
Swing states for Romney:
Nevada, Colorado, Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Iowa, Minnesota
Swing states for Obama:
None
Michael Barone:
Romney 315, Obama 223
Denverpost
Writing in the Washington Examiner, conservative columnist
Michael Barone
says he's going "out on a limb" and predicting a healthy Romney win, with 315 Electoral College votes. That map would have Romney cleaning up in the South plus capturing Colorado, Ohio and New Hampshire and turning Pennsylvania into a swing state.
Swing states for Romney:
North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, Iowa, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin
Swing states for Obama:
Nevada
Dean Chambers:
Romney 311, Obama 227
Denverpost
Conservative activist
Dean Chambers
runs the website UnSkewed Polls, where he recalibrates polls to offset what he believes are misjudgments about sampling. His prediction calls for Romney to win the South and the Midwest, including Michigan, a state on few other lists.
Swing states for Romney:
Colorado, Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, New Hampshire, Virginia, North Carolina, Florida
Swing states for Obama:
Nevada
Andrew Beyer:
Romney 284, Obama 254
Denverpost
As part of the biennial "Crystal Ball" contest in the Washington Post Outlook section, horse-racing columnist
Andrew Beyer
predicted a narrow Romney win, with 284 Electoral College votes to Obama's 254. The newspaper does not post actual states called, but a likely scenario would involve Romney doing well in the South and West and winning Ohio.
Swing states for Romney:
Nevada, Colorado, Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, New Hampshire
Swing states for Obama:
Iowa, Wisconsin, Nebraska 2nd Congressional District (1 elector)
Karl Rove:
Romney 279, Obama 259
Denverpost
Republican strategist and former Bush adviser
Karl Rove
predicted in an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal that Romney would win with at least 279 Electoral College votes. Though he didn't specify which states, a
likely route
would be for Romney to clean up in the South plus win Colorado, Ohio and New Hampshire.
Swing states for Romney:
Colorado, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, New Hampshire
Swing states for Obama:
Nevada, Iowa, Wisconsin
Ben Domenech:
Romney 278, Obama 260
Denverpost
In a post on Real Clear Politics, Red State blog co-founder
Ben Domenech
predicted a narrow Romney win with 278 Electoral College votes. His map includes Romney sweeping the South and picking up Colorado, Wisconsin and New Hampshire plus one of Maine's Congressional districts.
Swing states for Romney:
Colorado, Iowa, Wisconsin, Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, New Hampshire, Maine Congressional district
Swing states for Obama:
Nevada, Ohio
Leslie Sanchez:
Romney 275, Obama 263
Denverpost
Also as part of the "Crystal Ball" contest in the Washington Post, Republican strategist
Leslie Sanchez
, a former adviser to George W. Bush, predicted a narrow Romney win. Again, the actual states aren't known, but the most likely scenario would be for Romney to clean up in the South, plus win Ohio and Colorado.
Swing states for Romney:
Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, Colorado
Swing states for Obama:
Nevada, Iowa, Wisconsin, New Hampshire
Copyright 2012 San Jose Mercury News. All rights reserved.
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