Tim Kawakami's fearless forecast for the NFL, 2013.

Oakland Raiders record (and finish): 5-11, last in the AFC West. It's really hard to lose more than 11 games in the NFL, though the Raiders have managed it often of late. This time, they'll steal one victory apiece from KC and SD and finish one win better than last year.

San Francisco 49ers record (and finish): 12-4, first in NFC West. Even if Colin Kaepernick gets dinged up a time or two, there's enough there to match-up against almost anybody.

Raiders QB with most starts: Matt Flynn, or Terrelle Pryor? Pryor, because he'll at least have one. I don't know if Flynn will have any.

Kaepernick, Touchdowns & Turnovers: 33 TDs (including rushing), 12 TOs. He was a little lucky on the INT-rate last season, so that will bump up a little. But he'll score a ton of TD: 26 passing, seven rushing.

More yards rushing, Frank Gore or Darren McFadden? Gore with his usual 1,200 will beat out McFadden with his usual six missed games.

Raiders Blackouts: One. With stadium capacity reduced this season, the Raiders should go through most of the schedule with "sellouts."

Surprise Team: Carolina Panthers (7-9 last year). Not exactly a rough schedule, and the defense is good enough to take advantage of Cam Newton on the other side of the ball. Could make the playoffs.

Disappointing Team: Indianapolis Colts (11-5 last year). Won a bunch of nail-biters last year, that'll balance out. Things are on an upswing, but this year the record might not show it, maybe 8-8 or worse.

First Coach Fired: Jets' Rex Ryan. The circus can't go on forever.

Super Bowl: Denver over 49ers.

Read Tim Kawakami's Talking Points blog at blogs.mercurynews.com/kawakami. Contact him at tkawakami@mercurynews.com.